Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-01 · 14:00
The score model makes a Fredrikstad win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.35 – 1.14 Sandefjord.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad win | 42.0% | 40.5% | +1.5% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.8% | -1.6% |
| Sandefjord win | 31.8% | 31.7% | +0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 54.6% | -9.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 34.1% | -10.2% |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 58.9% | -9.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 37.0% | -6.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fredrikstad 34.6 / Sandefjord 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.