Valerenga vs HamKam
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-07-31 · 19:00 CET
LDLDL
WDLDLThe score model made a Valerenga win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valerenga 1.95 – 1.30 HamKam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valerenga win | 52.8% | 58.7% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.5% | 22.1% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| HamKam win | 25.7% | 19.2% | +6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 64.3% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 43.7% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 61.5% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.9% | 44.1% | -1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valerenga 31.8 / HamKam 39.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.