Valerenga vs HamKam
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-07-31 · 17:00
The score model makes a Valerenga win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valerenga 1.95 – 1.30 HamKam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valerenga win | 52.8% | 58.1% | -5.3% |
| Draw | 21.5% | 22.3% | -0.8% |
| HamKam win | 25.7% | 19.6% | +6.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 63.9% | -0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 43.3% | -2.6% |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 61.6% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.9% | 44.2% | -1.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valerenga 31.9 / HamKam 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.