Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-07-31 · 19:00
The score model makes a Bodo/Glimt win the most likely outcome at 79%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 71%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 2.84 – 0.81 Lillestrom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt win | 79.3% | 75.5% | +3.8% |
| Draw | 12.7% | 14.8% | -2.1% |
| Lillestrom win | 8.0% | 9.7% | -1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.5% | 72.1% | -1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.5% | 53.1% | -3.6% |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 57.1% | -5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.8% | 50.4% | -3.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bodo/Glimt 40.6 / Lillestrom 24.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.