Quick Boys vs Hardenberg
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-26 · 15:00 CET
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LWDWWThe score model made a Quick Boys win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Quick Boys 1.90 – 0.99 Hardenberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quick Boys win | 58.4% | 61.1% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.3% | 21.1% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Hardenberg win | 19.2% | 17.8% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 61.0% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.8% | 40.5% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 57.1% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 41.9% | -7.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Quick Boys 44.1 / Hardenberg 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Quick Boys vs Hardenberg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.