IJsselmeervogels vs Rijnsburgse Boys
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-26 · 15:00 CET
LWLWW
LWLWLThe score model made a Rijnsburgse Boys win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: IJsselmeervogels 1.53 – 1.94 Rijnsburgse Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IJsselmeervogels win | 30.5% | 38.7% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 23.7% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Rijnsburgse Boys win | 47.3% | 37.6% | +9.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.3% | 65.2% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.6% | 45.7% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.1% | 67.1% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.8% | 45.6% | +1.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: IJsselmeervogels 32.5 / Rijnsburgse Boys 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.