GVVV vs RKAV Volendam
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-26 · 14:30 CET
WWWLW
LLWWWThe score model made a GVVV win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: GVVV 1.95 – 1.67 RKAV Volendam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GVVV win | 44.9% | 49.0% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 23.2% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| RKAV Volendam win | 33.3% | 27.8% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.0% | 66.3% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.9% | 47.0% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 69.7% | 67.0% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.9% | 46.1% | -7.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: GVVV 41.9 / RKAV Volendam 36.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open GVVV vs RKAV Volendam in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.