Katwijk vs De Treffers
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-19 · 15:00 CET
WLLLW
WLWWDThe score model made a De Treffers win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Katwijk 1.57 – 1.61 De Treffers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katwijk win | 37.5% | 30.9% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 23.7% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| De Treffers win | 38.9% | 45.5% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 64.1% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.3% | 44.1% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 65.2% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 45.0% | -4.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Katwijk 43.8 / De Treffers 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Katwijk vs De Treffers in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.