Hardenberg vs Kozakken Boys
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-19 · 14:30 CET
LWDWW
DWWDLThe score model made a Hardenberg win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hardenberg 1.79 – 1.21 Kozakken Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hardenberg win | 50.9% | 39.6% | +11.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 25.1% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Kozakken Boys win | 25.8% | 35.3% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | 62.4% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.3% | 42.1% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 65.3% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 43.5% | -10.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hardenberg 43.7 / Kozakken Boys 33.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hardenberg vs Kozakken Boys in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.