RKAV Volendam vs Spakenburg
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-22 · 14:30 CET
LLWDW
LWLWLThe score model made a Spakenburg win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RKAV Volendam 1.58 – 2.17 Spakenburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKAV Volendam win | 28.4% | 22.3% | +6.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.3% | 20.8% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Spakenburg win | 51.3% | 56.8% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.3% | 70.9% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.6% | 52.2% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 70.2% | 68.2% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 49.5% | -10.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: RKAV Volendam 34.2 / Spakenburg 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.