Rijnsburgse Boys vs Jong Sparta Rotterdam
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-22 · 14:30 CET
WLLDW
WWWLDThe score model made a Rijnsburgse Boys win the most likely outcome at 61%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 83%). It finished 3:6 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rijnsburgse Boys 2.82 – 1.72 Jong Sparta Rotterdam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rijnsburgse Boys win | 60.8% | 56.0% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.0% | 20.4% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Jong Sparta Rotterdam win | 22.2% | 23.6% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83.0% | 73.4% | +9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 66.3% | 55.9% | +10.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 77.0% | 70.3% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 89.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 63.4% | 52.0% | +11.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rijnsburgse Boys 42.3 / Jong Sparta Rotterdam 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.