HFC vs Barendrecht
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-22 · 14:00 CET
WLLWD
LLWLWThe score model made an HFC win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: HFC 1.69 – 1.33 Barendrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFC win | 46.3% | 42.8% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.5% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Barendrecht win | 30.4% | 32.7% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 60.7% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 40.6% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | 63.1% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 42.1% | -2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: HFC 42.3 / Barendrecht 34.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.