Hardenberg vs Jong Almere City
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-22 · 14:30 CET
WWWWD
WWLLLThe score model made a Hardenberg win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hardenberg 1.74 – 1.68 Jong Almere City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hardenberg win | 40.3% | 42.0% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 24.7% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Jong Almere City win | 37.6% | 33.3% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.4% | 62.6% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.6% | 42.1% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 66.9% | 64.0% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 42.9% | -0.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hardenberg 42.3 / Jong Almere City 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.