GVVV vs AFC
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-22 · 14:30 CET
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LLWWLThe score model made an AFC win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: GVVV 1.54 – 1.70 AFC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GVVV win | 35.2% | 39.0% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 25.3% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| AFC win | 42.0% | 35.7% | +6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 60.3% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.5% | 40.2% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | 63.5% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 41.6% | -0.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: GVVV 39.6 / AFC 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.