Kozakken Boys vs IJsselmeervogels
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-15 · 15:00 CET
LLDWW
LWLDWThe score model made a Kozakken Boys win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kozakken Boys 1.59 – 1.44 IJsselmeervogels.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kozakken Boys win | 41.4% | 42.9% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 25.4% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| IJsselmeervogels win | 34.8% | 31.8% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 60.3% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 40.2% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 62.1% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 41.6% | -7.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kozakken Boys 30.7 / IJsselmeervogels 29.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.