Jong Almere City vs Rijnsburgse Boys
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-15 · 17:30 CET
WWLLL
WLLDWThe score model made a Jong Almere City win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 78%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Almere City 2.09 – 2.06 Rijnsburgse Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Almere City win | 40.5% | 32.7% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.1% | 23.9% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Rijnsburgse Boys win | 39.4% | 43.4% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.3% | 68.0% | +10.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59.5% | 48.5% | +11.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 76.4% | 68.5% | +7.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 87.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 60.3% | 47.6% | +12.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Almere City 39.2 / Rijnsburgse Boys 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.