De Treffers vs GVVV
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-15 · 18:00 CET
DWWDD
LLLLLThe score model made a De Treffers win the most likely outcome at 61%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 5:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: De Treffers 2.29 – 1.25 GVVV.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Treffers win | 60.9% | 65.4% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.2% | 19.6% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| GVVV win | 19.9% | 15.0% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | 64.4% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.2% | 44.5% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | 57.5% | +6.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.9% | 44.7% | -1.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: De Treffers 42.1 / GVVV 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.