Barendrecht vs Hardenberg
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-15 · 15:00 CET
LLWLW
WWWWDThe score model made a Hardenberg win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barendrecht 1.62 – 1.88 Hardenberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barendrecht win | 33.9% | 27.6% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 23.6% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Hardenberg win | 44.3% | 48.9% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.9% | 65.4% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.4% | 45.8% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 67.9% | 66.5% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.0% | 45.5% | -3.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Barendrecht 33.5 / Hardenberg 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.