Willem II vs Sittard
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-19 · 21:00 CET
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WLWDDThe score model made a Sittard win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Willem II 1.29 – 1.50 Sittard.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II win | 31.4% | 37.0% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 25.9% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Sittard win | 40.8% | 37.1% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 59.7% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 38.9% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 63.1% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 41.5% | -7.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Willem II 20.2 / Sittard 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Willem II vs Sittard in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.