Groningen vs Zwolle
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-18 · 20:00 CET
DDWWL
LLLWDThe score model made a Groningen win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Groningen 1.91 – 1.14 Zwolle.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 54.2% | 62.3% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 20.7% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Zwolle win | 21.4% | 17.1% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 68.4% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 48.5% | -12.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 63.7% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 47.1% | -4.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Groningen 40.2 / Zwolle 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Groningen vs Zwolle in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.