Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-19 · 18:45 CET
DLLDW
DWLWWThe score model made a Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.50 – 1.35 Heerenveen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 39.6% | 40.1% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 24.7% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Heerenveen win | 33.0% | 35.2% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 67.6% | -13.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.0% | 48.0% | -16.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 68.8% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 46.8% | -17.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sparta Rotterdam 44.5 / Heerenveen 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.