PSV vs Groningen
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-23 · 14:30 CET
DWWWW
WWLLDThe score model made a PSV win the most likely outcome at 76%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 76%). It finished 5:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PSV 2.97 – 1.01 Groningen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 76.5% | 72.5% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 14.4% | 16.0% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Groningen win | 9.1% | 11.5% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.9% | 75.5% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56.2% | 56.9% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 63.0% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 55.1% | 52.7% | +2.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PSV 43.1 / Groningen 38.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.