Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-22 · 18:45 CET
LWDLD
LLDLDThe score model made an Utrecht win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.28 – 1.40 Utrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 33.1% | 36.3% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.5% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Utrecht win | 38.6% | 36.2% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 55.4% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 34.5% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 59.6% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.6% | 37.3% | -15.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sparta Rotterdam 43.1 / Utrecht 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.