Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-15 · 18:45 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made an Utrecht win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Utrecht 1.56 – 1.28 AZ Alkmaar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht win | 42.8% | 35.0% | +7.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.2% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 30.2% | 38.8% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 58.2% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 37.3% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 61.8% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 39.9% | -6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Utrecht 43.7 / AZ Alkmaar 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.