Excelsior vs PSV
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-15 · 20:00 CET
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DWWWWThe score model made a PSV win the most likely outcome at 67%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 77%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Excelsior 1.30 – 2.72 PSV.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior win | 15.4% | 16.1% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.7% | 20.0% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| PSV win | 66.8% | 63.9% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.5% | 70.3% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57.1% | 50.5% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 68.6% | 64.6% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.7% | 48.3% | +5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Excelsior 31.6 / PSV 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.