Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-09 · 12:15 CET
LWDLD
WDWDWThe score model made a Feyenoord win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.10 – 1.83 Feyenoord.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 21.3% | 21.1% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 23.2% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Feyenoord win | 53.3% | 55.7% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 61.3% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 40.4% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 60.7% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 42.0% | -11.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sparta Rotterdam 42.3 / Feyenoord 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.