Heerenveen vs Twente
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-09 · 16:45 CET
WDLDL
LLWWDThe score model made a Twente win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Heerenveen 1.40 – 1.66 Twente.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen win | 31.2% | 31.3% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 25.2% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Twente win | 42.5% | 43.5% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 64.1% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.4% | 43.5% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | 65.7% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 43.9% | -5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Heerenveen 43.2 / Twente 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.