Groningen vs Utrecht
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-09 · 14:30 CET
WWLLD
LLDLDThe score model made an Utrecht win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Groningen 1.25 – 1.35 Utrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 33.1% | 40.4% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 27.6% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Utrecht win | 37.7% | 32.0% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 52.6% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 31.7% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 57.4% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 36.3% | -8.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Groningen 37.5 / Utrecht 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.