PSV vs Sittard
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-08 · 20:00 CET
DWWWW
DWLWWThe score model made a PSV win the most likely outcome at 85%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 83%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PSV 3.62 – 0.90 Sittard.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 85.4% | 81.3% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 9.7% | 11.6% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Sittard win | 4.9% | 7.1% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82.9% | 77.6% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 66.1% | 59.5% | +6.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 57.0% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 87.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 63.4% | 56.1% | +7.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PSV 42.4 / Sittard 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.