Nijmegen vs Telstar
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-08 · 16:30 CET
LWWLD
WLLDLThe score model made a Nijmegen win the most likely outcome at 58%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nijmegen 2.18 – 1.24 Telstar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nijmegen win | 57.8% | 64.2% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.3% | 19.8% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Telstar win | 19.9% | 16.0% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.4% | 66.1% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.6% | 45.5% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | 60.5% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 45.9% | -6.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nijmegen 42.4 / Telstar 22.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.