G.A. Eagles vs Willem II
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-08 · 18:45 CET
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LLLDLThe score model made a G.A. Eagles win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: G.A. Eagles 1.73 – 0.90 Willem II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.A. Eagles win | 55.6% | 60.1% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 22.3% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Willem II win | 18.1% | 17.5% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 60.9% | -12.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 39.9% | -13.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 57.9% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.7% | 41.6% | -4.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: G.A. Eagles 42.4 / Willem II 15.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.