Jong AZ vs Almere City
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
WLDWL
WWLLWThe score model makes a Jong AZ win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 73%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Jong AZ win — 42.3% vs 33.5% implied (+8.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong AZ 1.98 – 1.85 Almere City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ win | 42.3% | 33.5% | +8.8% |
| Draw | 20.7% | 23.0% | -2.3% |
| Almere City win | 37.0% | 43.5% | -6.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.5% | 71.7% | +1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53.1% | 52.9% | +0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 72.3% | 71.6% | +0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.0% | 50.3% | +0.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Jong AZ 50.9 / Almere City 35 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jong AZ vs Almere City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.