Helmond vs FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
DLLLW
LWDWLThe score model makes an FC Volendam win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: FC Volendam win — 45.1% vs 39.4% implied (+5.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Helmond 1.51 – 1.80 FC Volendam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond win | 32.8% | 37.3% | -4.6% |
| Draw | 22.2% | 23.3% | -1.1% |
| FC Volendam win | 45.1% | 39.4% | +5.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.1% | 66.8% | -2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.0% | 47.1% | -5.0% |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | 67.8% | -3.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.9% | 46.3% | -4.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Helmond 51 / FC Volendam 22.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Helmond vs FC Volendam in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.