Roda vs Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-26 · 20:00 CET
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DLDDLThe score model made a Roda win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Roda 1.47 – 1.43 Waalwijk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda win | 38.7% | 40.8% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 26.5% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Waalwijk win | 37.0% | 32.7% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | 56.7% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.9% | 36.0% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 60.7% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 38.8% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Roda 49.3 / Waalwijk 31.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Roda vs Waalwijk in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.