Dordrecht vs Almere City
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-25 · 21:00 CET
WDLWL
WWLLWThe score model made an Almere City win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dordrecht 1.42 – 1.83 Almere City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht win | 30.1% | 31.1% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.3% | 23.4% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Almere City win | 47.6% | 45.6% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | 69.3% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.9% | 49.7% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | 69.9% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.5% | 47.6% | -7.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dordrecht 48.7 / Almere City 36.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dordrecht vs Almere City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.