De Graafschap vs NAC Breda
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-20 · 16:45 CET
WDWLD
WDWWDThe score model made a De Graafschap win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 75%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: De Graafschap 2.38 – 1.54 NAC Breda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap win | 56.4% | 28.5% | +27.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.1% | 23.7% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| NAC Breda win | 24.5% | 47.8% | -23.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.0% | 66.1% | +8.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55.1% | 45.2% | +9.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 71.2% | 66.5% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.2% | 45.9% | +3.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: De Graafschap 49.8 / NAC Breda 13.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open De Graafschap vs NAC Breda in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.