Waalwijk vs Maastricht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-18 · 20:00 CET
LDLDD
WLLLDThe score model made a Waalwijk win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 6:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waalwijk 2.18 – 1.11 Maastricht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 61.8% | 57.6% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.6% | 22.9% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Maastricht win | 18.7% | 19.5% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | 60.1% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.8% | 38.7% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 58.5% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 41.4% | -4.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Waalwijk 30.8 / Maastricht 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Waalwijk vs Maastricht in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.