Jong Utrecht vs Venlo
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-18 · 20:00 CET
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LWWDWThe score model made a Venlo win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Utrecht 1.42 – 1.52 Venlo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Utrecht win | 35.8% | 38.6% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 25.7% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Venlo win | 40.1% | 35.8% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 65.0% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% | 44.6% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 66.8% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 43.9% | -11.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Utrecht 50.4 / Venlo 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jong Utrecht vs Venlo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.