Jong AZ vs FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-18 · 20:00 CET
DWLDW
WLWDWThe score model made an FC Volendam win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 78%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong AZ 1.75 – 2.36 FC Volendam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ win | 28.8% | 33.5% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.3% | 24.1% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| FC Volendam win | 51.8% | 42.4% | +9.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.8% | 70.0% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58.8% | 50.7% | +8.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 74.7% | 70.9% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.6% | 48.7% | +1.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong AZ 50.3 / FC Volendam 18.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jong AZ vs FC Volendam in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.