Jong Ajax vs Roda
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-18 · 20:00 CET
LDLWD
WLDWWThe score model made a Roda win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Ajax 1.22 – 1.51 Roda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax win | 30.9% | 29.2% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.4% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Roda win | 44.2% | 46.5% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 65.9% | -14.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 46.0% | -16.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 66.7% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 45.4% | -9.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Ajax 50.3 / Roda 49.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jong Ajax vs Roda in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.