Eindhoven FC vs FC Emmen
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-18 · 20:00 CET
LDLLL
WDWWWThe score model made an Eindhoven FC win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eindhoven FC 1.73 – 1.61 FC Emmen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eindhoven FC win | 41.2% | 25.2% | +16.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 22.9% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| FC Emmen win | 36.4% | 51.9% | -15.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | 66.6% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.9% | 46.2% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 65.7% | 65.6% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.2% | 46.0% | -1.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eindhoven FC 48.4 / FC Emmen 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Eindhoven FC vs FC Emmen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.