Venlo vs De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-23 · 16:45 CET
LWWWL
DLLLLThe score model made a De Graafschap win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Venlo 1.47 – 1.67 De Graafschap.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venlo win | 34.0% | 33.7% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 24.6% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| De Graafschap win | 42.9% | 41.7% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 68.0% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.4% | 48.4% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | 68.9% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 46.9% | -16.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Venlo 47 / De Graafschap 48.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.