NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-22 · 16:30 CET
WLWDL
LLWDWThe score model made an NAC Breda win the most likely outcome at 57%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: NAC Breda 2.02 – 1.19 Jong Ajax.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 56.7% | 74.9% | -18.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.0% | 15.6% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Jong Ajax win | 22.3% | 9.5% | +12.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | 72.7% | -10.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.0% | 54.0% | -13.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 58.3% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.7% | 50.7% | -9.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: NAC Breda 10.9 / Jong Ajax 47.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.