Maastricht vs FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-21 · 20:00 CET
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LWLWLThe score model made an FC Volendam win the most likely outcome at 60%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maastricht 1.25 – 2.23 FC Volendam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maastricht win | 20.6% | 26.0% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.7% | 24.8% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| FC Volendam win | 59.7% | 49.2% | +10.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | 60.3% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.8% | 39.6% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | 61.8% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.4% | 41.5% | +5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maastricht 47.2 / FC Volendam 15 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.