Helmond vs Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-21 · 20:00 CET
DLDLW
DDDDWThe score model made a Waalwijk win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Helmond 1.29 – 1.63 Waalwijk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond win | 30.4% | 25.4% | +4.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 26.1% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Waalwijk win | 45.6% | 48.5% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | 55.4% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.5% | 34.5% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 58.2% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 37.7% | -3.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Helmond 47.2 / Waalwijk 28.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.