FC Emmen vs Jong AZ
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-21 · 20:00 CET
WWWLW
WLLWWThe score model made an FC Emmen win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Emmen 2.01 – 1.70 Jong AZ.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen win | 45.5% | 40.2% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 25.0% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Jong AZ win | 33.4% | 34.8% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.6% | 65.8% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.8% | 45.6% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 70.7% | 67.3% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.2% | 45.2% | +6.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Emmen 44.5 / Jong AZ 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.