Dordrecht vs Roda
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-21 · 20:00 CET
WDLLL
LWWDDThe score model made a Dordrecht win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dordrecht 1.47 – 1.19 Roda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht win | 43.7% | 36.9% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 26.9% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Roda win | 30.7% | 36.2% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 56.2% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 35.6% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 60.7% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 38.5% | -2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dordrecht 47.2 / Roda 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.