Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-17 · 20:00 CET
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DWLWWThe score model made a Vitesse win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Utrecht 1.35 – 1.63 Vitesse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Utrecht win | 31.9% | 28.3% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 25.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Vitesse win | 44.3% | 45.7% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | 57.4% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.0% | 36.2% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 60.3% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 39.2% | +0.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Utrecht 46.8 / Vitesse 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.