Jong Ajax vs FC Emmen
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-17 · 20:00 CET
LLWDW
WWWLWThe score model made a Jong Ajax win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 4:6 (HT 3:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Ajax 1.53 – 1.49 FC Emmen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax win | 38.7% | 33.1% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 24.4% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| FC Emmen win | 37.3% | 42.5% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 64.4% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.7% | 43.7% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | 65.9% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.5% | 44.2% | -3.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Ajax 46.7 / FC Emmen 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.