De Graafschap vs Jong AZ
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-17 · 20:00 CET
DLLLL
WLLWWThe score model made a De Graafschap win the most likely outcome at 59%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 2:5 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: De Graafschap 2.36 – 1.38 Jong AZ.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap win | 59.4% | 53.9% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.0% | 21.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Jong AZ win | 21.6% | 24.8% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.1% | 72.1% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.3% | 52.8% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 67.6% | 70.0% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.9% | 50.3% | -0.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: De Graafschap 48.4 / Jong AZ 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.