FC Volendam vs Oss
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-15 · 16:30 CET
LWLWL
LLLWLThe score model made an FC Volendam win the most likely outcome at 73%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Volendam 2.62 – 0.96 Oss.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam win | 73.0% | 65.7% | +7.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.5% | 19.7% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Oss win | 11.6% | 14.6% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.5% | 60.7% | +8.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.1% | 39.7% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | 53.9% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.0% | 41.4% | +3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Volendam 14.2 / Oss 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.